Kentucky's 4th District is a one-point race.
A FactsDriven survey of 600 likely voters finds Ed Gallrein and Melissa Strange within a point of each other in a district Trump won by 36. Gallrein has not locked down the right, and independents prefer Strange.
Kentucky's 4th Congressional District voted for Donald Trump by 36 points. A new FactsDriven survey of 600 likely voters finds the race for its House seat within a single point: Ed Gallrein 47.4%, Melissa Strange 46.5% and Jeremy Todd 6.1%, once voters have heard from both major candidates and undecided voters are allocated.
The survey was fielded October 6 to 20, 2026, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. The seat is in play.
Five key findings
The race is within the margin of error. After hearing from both candidates, voters split 46.5% for Strange and 47.4% for Gallrein, with undecided voters allocated. Trump carried this district by 36 points.
More voters dislike Gallrein than like him. 38% view Gallrein unfavorably and 23% favorably. Strange is viewed favorably by 18% and unfavorably by 11%.
Independent voters prefer Strange. Independent and third-party voters choose Strange over Gallrein, 44% to 30%.
Gallrein has not locked down the right. 44% of voters who backed Thomas Massie in the May primary would consider a moderate Democrat over Gallrein. 26% of conservative voters don't support him.
Voters want a representative who puts Kentucky before party. 83% say their representative should vote the way Kentuckians want when it conflicts with party leaders.
Strange gains after voters hear from both candidates
Voters were asked how they would vote twice: at the start of the survey, and again after reading short descriptions of both major candidates.
Initial ballot, as answered: Gallrein 43, Strange 36, Todd 7, undecided 13.
After hearing from both, as answered: Gallrein 44, Strange 41, Todd 6, undecided 10.
After hearing from both, undecided voters allocated: Gallrein 47.4, Strange 46.5, Todd 6.1.
Gallrein's seven-point lead on the initial ballot narrows to three once voters hear from both candidates, and to under one point with undecided voters allocated. Percent of likely voters. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. The allocation method is described at the end of this memo.
How voters see the candidates
More voters dislike Gallrein than like him. The opposite is true for Strange.
Ed Gallrein, net -15: 23% favorable, 38% unfavorable, 30% no opinion, 9% never heard of him.
Melissa Strange, net +7: 18% favorable, 11% unfavorable, 34% no opinion, 36% never heard of her.
Net favorability is the share with a favorable view minus the share with an unfavorable view. More than a third of voters have not yet heard of Strange, which leaves her more room to define herself than Gallrein has.
The swing vote
Independent voters prefer Strange, and Gallrein has not locked down the right.
44 to 30. Independent and third-party voters choose Strange over Gallrein. Todd takes 9% and 17% are undecided.
44% of voters who backed Thomas Massie in the May primary would consider a moderate Democrat over Gallrein.
26% of conservative voters don't support Gallrein: 9% choose Strange, 8% Todd and 9% are undecided.
Subgroups carry wider margins of error than the full sample. Independent and third-party voters n=198; Massie primary voters n=80; conservatives n=205.
What voters want
83% say their representative should vote the way Kentuckians want when it conflicts with party leaders. Only 9% say vote with the party.
The most important issue in deciding their vote:
Government corruption: 26%
Cost of living: 25%
Jobs and the economy: 12%
Immigration: 9%
Social Security and Medicare: 8%
About this survey
Sample. 600 likely voters in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, fielded October 6 to 20, 2026.
Method. Text-to-web. Each voter received a unique, single-use survey link. Respondents who said they were unlikely to vote were screened out.
Weighting. Weighted to the expected 2026 general electorate by 2024 presidential vote, age, gender and education, using state turnout records and Census data.
Margin of error. Plus or minus 4.0 points at the 95% confidence level for the full sample. Subgroups have wider margins. Percentages are rounded.
Undecided allocation. Undecided voters who say they would consider a moderate Democrat over Gallrein are counted for Strange. The rest are split the way the district voted for governor in 2023 (Cameron 52, Beshear 48), adjusted for how similar decided voters are voting. No respondent's recorded answer is changed.